Will a process to take Poland out of the European Union be formally triggered by the end of 2022?
Market Rules
Andrzej Duda, from the Law and Justice Party (PiS) of Poland, was elected for a second term as President of Poland in July 2020. The reforms of the country's justice system that were promoted during his administration's first term have attracted the European Union's concerns over threats to the rule of law and democratic principles in Poland. With his reelection, concerns about the proliferation of more initiatives like that grew in the international community.
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) already ruled some of Poland's reforms in the last few years as illegal, but now some observers consider the possibility that the Polish administration might stop enforcing ECJ's decisions and perhaps leave the European Justice system altogether. If Poland doesn't cope with the rules of the European Union, it could also lead to the country leaving the block.
If by December 31, 2022, Poland or the European Union formally triggers the official procedures to withdraw the country from the European Union this market will resolve to "Yes". Such a process does not need to be finished by the referred date for that condition to be met. Its formal initiation is enough for the sake of this market's resolution.