Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory by the end of June?

If by June 30, 2022, Russian troops invade Ukraine’s territory, this market will resolve to “Yes”

If the invasion takes place through the oblasts of Luhansk or Donetsk - regions that were partially under the control of pro-Russian militias at the time this market was opened - the market will only resolve to "Yes" if the invasion is not restricted to proxy attacks. Controversies on that matter will be resolved using reports of the Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine of the Organization for Security and Co-operation of Europe (OSCE) as available at https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports .

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Ukrainian territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Ukrainian territories will only be considered if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.