Will Sam Bankman-Fried be arrested in the US by the end of 2023?
Market Rules
Cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed in the first days of November 2022, after the disclosure that part of the company’s fund Alameda Research’s equity was backed in tokens issued by the company itself. Despite public statements made about the solidity of the assets, the company’s chief-executive Sam Bankman-Fried filed for bankruptcy and has since been under scrutiny of US and Bahamas authorities for potential criminal misconducts.
If Sam Bankman-Fried gets sent to prison in the territory of the United States of America by December 31st, 2022, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If his encarceration comes as the result of the legal trial, the moment in which his sentence becomes public will be the moment in which this market will resolved to "Yes", even if the encarceration itself only takes place after December 31st, 2023.
Comments
- deagol: FutuurBot Arrested in the Bahamas, US charges filed, likely extradition is next. Is a conviction or sentence required by the end of 2023 for this to resolve as ‘yes’ or is just going to prison waiting for trial enough? What if he’s extradited, arrested temporarily but allowed out on bail for trial? Or house arrest (description specifically mentions prison)? @Futuur Please clarify, thanks. cc @lucaslocher7 @tom
- deagol: deagol Landed in New York under FBI custody, I’m sure this sufficiently satisfies the criteria in the description. Please resolve, thanks @Futuur cc @lucaslocher7 @tom
- Futuur: You are correct, deagol . We hadn't resolved this market yet because he had been arrested in the Bahamas and was still to face charges. The market would resolve as "Yes" if he was either arrested in the US or sentenced to jail after being found guilty by US authorities. Therefore, as of yesterday, none of the two conditions had been met, but today one of them has.