Will the so-called "Transition Constitutional Amendment" be approved in Brazil's Congress in 2022?
Market Rules
On November 2022, Brazil's vice president-elect Geraldo Alckmin handed to the Federal Senate the text of a proposal of constitutional amendment (PEC) drafted by the government transition staff. If approved, the proposal would enable expenditures that are not contained in 2023 budget in order to fund social programs, thus circumventing the legal spending cap. Even though the spending cap limits the growth of fiscal expenses to the previous year’s inflation, a previous PEC had been approved in July to enable the creation of social benefits in an electoral year.
The procedure to pass a PEC depends on the discussion of the matter in both the Senate and the House, in two rounds, with at least two thirds of support from both chambers in both turns.
If Brazil's National Congress passes a new constitutional amendment in the legislative year of 2022 to allow the government to exceed the legal spending cap to fund social programs, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
People also viewed
- Which of Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through the end of 2026?
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
- Bill 2633/20 (a.k.a. "PL da Grilagem") approved in Brazil's Congress by the end of 2026?
- Will Brazil's Congress pass limited-duration terms for STF justices in 2026?