Will the commander of the Brazilian Marine (Admiral Marcos Olsen) remain in office through the end of 2023?
Market Rules
On January 21st, 2023, Brazilian president Lula da Silva replaced the then Army’s chief commander, Júlio César de Arruda, for general Tomás Paiva. That change took place in the context of a rearrangement of the relationship between the President and the Armed Forces after the acts of vandalism that took place in the Three Powers’ Square, in Brasília, on January 8th, 2023.
If admiral Marcos Olsen remains in office as the commander of the Brazilian Marine through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
In case either admiral Marcos Olsen himself or an official spokesperson of the Brazilian government announces Olsen's departure from office by December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes" at the moment of the announcement, with no need to wait until the effective departure from the office.