Will Hamas control Gaza through the end of April of 2024?
Market Rules
Israel declared war on Hamas in response to the murder of civilians promoted by this group on October 7th, 2023. The goal of the unprecedented military operation in the Gaza Strip, of eliminating Hamas, requires overcoming obstacles of various types, including the complexity of the urban combat, a net of subterranean tunnels, and the international political pressure to preserve the lives of Palestinian civilians in the conflict.
If Hamas still exerts de facto control over the Gaza Strip through April 30th, 2024, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The outcome of this market will be determined based on official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or international bodies such as the United Nations, as well as media reports from mediatic, political, and scholarly sources that Futuur deems credible. If there are conflicting reports or a lack of clear, verifiable information, Futuur will decide between resolving the market in favor of the most credible report or canceling the market, in which case all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.
Tags
Comments
- sparkman_dan: Can you explain how you determine who controls Gaza? I look at the territory and it doesn't look to me like Hamas currently controls it. But you disagree. What do you mean when you say Hamas Controls Gaza?
- Futuur: Hello, sparkman_dan . Given the complexity of the situation in Gaza, there is no fixed set of parameters that need to be checked and ranked to meticulously determine which authority exerts control over its territory. The situation needs to be assessed each time a market arrives at its expiration date. However, the basic principle behind this determination is that there is no vacuum of power in politics. We cannot say someone has stopped controlling a region unless someone else effectively claims and demonstrates to have overtaken control of that very region. Given the current situation in the region, despite Israeli advancements and the progressively more precarious infrastructure in Gaza, there is still no other authority that has managed to undoubtedly overtake Hamas' control over the territory at stake, nor has anyone claimed to do so by the time we have written this comment.