Trump to impose 25% tariffs either on Canada’s or Mexico’s imports by February 1?

This market aims to predict whether Donald Trump will sign federal legislation or issue an executive action enacting a general tariff of at least 25% on imports from either Mexico or Canada into the United States by February 1, 2025, 23:59 (UTC-3). If a tariff is instituted on Mexico but not Canada, or on Canada but not Mexico, the market will still resolve to “Yes”.

A general tariff will qualify even if specific items are excluded, provided that a general policy of 25% or higher tariff broadly applies to imports from Mexico or Canada. Targeted tariffs applying only to specific goods or industries will not meet the criteria unless they are part of a broader general tariff policy.

The officially enacted tariffs don't necessarily need to come into effect before February 1st to resolve the market to “Yes”. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration. However, credible news reports may be used as auxiliary sources.