Nuclear conflict in the world in 2025?
Market Rules
The 2020 statement of the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists describes civilization-ending nuclear war as a genuine possibility and affirms that the arms control boundaries that prevented nuclear incidents since World War 2 "are being steadily dismantled". Regardless of whether or not an eventual war does indeed put an end to civilization, however, the odds of a nuclear conflict of smaller proportions also rose with the dismantling of such control boundaries.
If a nuclear conflict takes place by December 31st, 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes".
For the sake of resolving this market, a nuclear conflict will be considered an occasion in which one or more nuclear weapons are employed by one country against another country's territory, military, or civilian unit – even if in international waters. If the weapons are deployed against an enemy that does not constitute a country (such as in the example of the war between Hamas and Israel) that will also be taken into account.
Eventual accidents in nuclear power plants will not be considered as the use of nuclear weapons, even if the accident can be qualified as deliberate sabotage. Likewise, accidental detonations or releases of nuclear material will not be considered sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution unless they lead to intentional nuclear retaliation.