US to attack Venezuela in 2025?
Market Rules
If by December 31st, 2025, the United States launches a military attack against Venezuelan targets located inside Venezuelan territory – be it through the deployment of air, marine, or ground forces – this market will resolve to "Yes".
The attack will only be considered official for the resolution of this market if it is publicly confirmed by the White House or by the United Nations, including the fact that it was performed within the borders of Venezuelan territory.
Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes shooting projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicle deployment inside Venezuelan territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Venezuelan territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.
Attacks carried out by US-backed forces or allies will not be considered sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution unless officially acknowledged by the US government.
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Comments
- pedro_brito: Given the market rules, this should resolve No. “Yes” requires an official, public confirmation by the White House (institutionally) or the UN that the U.S. carried out a kinetic attack inside Venezuelan territory by Dec 31, 2025. Trump’s Dec 29 remark was not backed by any formal White House/DoD statement and did not provide specific, verifiable details (target/location) sufficient to confirm an in-territory attack under the market’s standard.