Will the US control Greenland in 2025?

This market aims to predict whether, at any point in 2025, the United States will assume formal control over a significant portion of Greenland, either through sovereign authority, binding agreements, or territorial acquisition. "Control" is defined as the U.S. gaining the ability to govern, administer, or exercise exclusive jurisdiction over a significant portion of the territory of Greenland (as recognised in January 2025), whether through purchase, annexation, or a formal agreement with Denmark or Greenland's autonomous government. This does not require Greenland to be recognized as a U.S. state or territory but must involve a formal and legally binding transfer of authority.

Verification will rely on official announcements or agreements from the U.S. government, the Danish government, or Greenland's autonomous government. Secondary verification may include reports from reputable media outlets. If no such transfer of control is announced or completed by December 31, 2025, the market will resolve as "No."

Military leases, basing agreements, or joint operations in Greenland will not satisfy the market's criteria. The acquisition of private land or facilities within Greenland by US entities will not qualify either. Only permanent transfer of control or sovereignty to the United States over a significant part of Greenland's territory will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

In cases of ambiguity or conflicting reports, priority will be given to official government announcements and legally binding agreements.