Will Tarcísio de Freitas run for President of Brazil in 2026?

This market aims to predict whether Tarcísio de Freitas, the current Governor of São Paulo, will officially announce his candidacy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. For this market to resolve as "Yes," Tarcísio must either formally register as a presidential candidate with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE) or publicly declare his intention to run, accompanied by active campaign efforts such as receiving an official endorsement from his political party or initiating fundraising efforts.

Verification will rely on official announcements from Tarcísio de Freitas, his campaign team, or the TSE, as well as confirmation from reputable media sources. Mere speculation, internal party discussions, or indirect endorsements will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution unless accompanied by an explicit declaration of candidacy. Being announced as a pre-candidate will not be sufficient to resolve this market as "Yes" until Tarcísio obtains the official status of presidential candidate from a political party.

If Tarcísio does not formally declare his candidacy or file with the TSE before the candidate registration deadline or the market’s end date, the market will resolve as "No." In the case of ambiguity or conflicting reports, priority will be given to official statements and electoral records confirming his candidacy status.