Will Trump change the universal 10% tariff on imports (except for China) before July 9?
Market Rules
For the purposes of this market, “reciprocal tariffs” refer to the country-specific rates applied to trading partners listed in Annex I of the executive order titled Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits, issued on April 2, 2025. “Universal tariff” refers to the 10% ad valorem baseline tariff introduced in the same executive order, applicable to imports from countries not subject to the reciprocal rates. On April 9, 2025, President Trump temporarily paused the reciprocal tariff rates for a 90-day period, effectively aligning them with the 10% universal tariff rate for that timeframe. China, however, was excluded from this pause and remained subject to elevated tariffs of up to 145%.
This market aims to predict whether the Trump administration will alter the 10% universal tariff baseline on imports — either by increasing, reducing, or eliminating it — at any point before July 9, 2025, 23:59 (ET). Any official change to this universal rate, regardless of the reason or scope of the adjustment, will result in the market resolving as “Yes”. Changes exclusively affecting reciprocal tariffs, such as those specific to countries in Annex I or to China, will not count toward resolution.
The signing of the decree, execitive order, or legislative act enacting the change in the universal tariff from a set date will be enough to resolve the market to "Yes", even if the set date for the tariff change to go into effect is after July 9, 2025.
Verification will rely on official announcements from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the Department of Commerce, the White House, or Customs and Border Protection. Reputable media reports may be used as secondary sources in the event of ambiguity or delays in the publication of formal regulatory adjustments.
If by the end of July 9, 2025, no official change to the 10% universal tariff baseline has been made or announced, this market will resolve as “No.” Tariff changes that apply only to China or only to reciprocal tariffs on Annex I countries will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.