Will the Brent oil barrel spot price fall below 36 USD in 2025?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether the spot price of Brent crude oil will dip below USD 36.00 per barrel at any point by December 31, 2025. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s daily “Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (RBRTE)” series records a closing value strictly below 36.00 USD on at least one trading day by the referred date, as published on the EIA webpage.
If the EIA omits a closing value for any trading day in 2025, that date is excluded from consideration. The market then looks to the next EIA trading day with a published price. If that next‑day value is strictly below USD 36.00, the market resolves “Yes.” Otherwise, the omission has no effect, and the market proceeds as normal. No claims or unofficial quotations will be accepted as substitutes for the missing EIA data.
If no qualifying daily price below USD 36.00 is published within the 2025 window, the market resolves “No.” Later data revisions, intraday ticks, and unofficial quotes do not affect resolution.
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