Will any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce plans for exploratory fossil fuel surveys by end of 2027?
Market Rules
This market asks whether any state that is a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty will, by December 31, 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, make an official announcement of intent to conduct exploratory fossil fuel surveys (oil, gas, or coal) in Antarctica. For resolution, “announcement of intent” requires a public statement or policy document from a national government or state agency explicitly describing plans or authorization for such surveys in Antarctica.
Primary Designated Source (PDS): official government communications (press releases, legislative acts, defense/energy ministry statements, or diplomatic communiqués) clearly confirming that exploratory fossil fuel surveys in Antarctica are planned or authorized by a Treaty signatory. If such an intent is announced during the Market Period, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
Clarifications:
- Scientific research unrelated to fossil fuel resource exploration does not count.
- Private speculation or third-party reporting without a government announcement does not count.
- The announcement must explicitly mention fossil fuel resource exploration (oil, gas, or coal), not just general geological or seismic research.
Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): Futuur may rely on reliable news organizations, chosen at its discretion, confirming such an official announcement. Resolution will be based on the substantive outcome and intent, not minor technicalities of phrasing or URL changes. If no clear determination is possible by the deadline, the market may be cancelled.