Will Eduardo Bolsonaro resign in 2025?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will relinquish his seat in Brazil’s House of Representatives on or before 23:59 (UTC-3) on December 31, 2025. It resolves to “Yes” if, within that period, Eduardo either:
- Issues a public and unambiguous declaration on a verified social-media account, in a press release, or at a recorded press conference stating that he is resigning his federal mandate (effective immediately or on a specified date) and the statement is not withdrawn within 24 hours, or
- submits a resignation letter that is read in plenary and formally accepted by the House presidency, thereby vacating the seat.
If neither condition is satisfied by the deadline, the market resolves to “No”. Public remarks that merely express an intention to resign, or statements rescinded within 24 hours, do not qualify. Subsequent reinstatement after a qualifying resignation does not alter a “Yes” outcome.
This market’s resolution will rely on the text or video of Eduardo Bolsonaro’s verified statement, publications in the annals of the House of Representatives, or the official plenary minutes declaring the vacancy. If those sources are temporarily inaccessible, reputable news outlets that explicitly quote or reproduce the primary documentation may serve as confirmation.
If Eduardo loses his seat or is removed from office for any reason before resigning, this market will resolve to "No" at the moment he loses his seat.
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