Will Eduardo Bolsonaro’s mandate be revoked in 2025?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will lose his seat in Brazil's House of Representatives (Câmara dos Deputados) through a compulsory act, such as a revocation (cassação) by the House’s plenary, a final judgment by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, or a Supreme Court decision before the House enters its end-of-year recess in December 2025. The market resolves to “Yes” when an official act declaring his mandate terminated is published and the House records the vacancy. If no such revocation occurs by the start of the recess, the market resolves to “No”.
The resolution’s verification will rely on the revocation act published in the annals of the House, a final decision posted on the Superior Electoral Court’s or Supreme Court’s docket, or a plenary resolution in the House's official record. Reputable news outlets that explicitly cite the official act may serve as secondary confirmation. Subsequent appeals or reinstatement after the recess do not affect the resolution.
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