Will the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?

Market period: From market open through 2026-11-05 23:59:59 UTC (inclusive). This market resolves to "Yes" if, before or on that date, a nationwide legal prohibition on mail-in ballot issuance or counting for federal races is enacted and in effect for the US 2026 midterm elections. A qualifying ban could arise through one of the following routes:

• Congress passes federal legislation or ratifies a constitutional amendment that explicitly prohibits mail-in ballot issuance or counting in federal elections.
• The U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling with binding nationwide effect that invalidates the use of mail-in ballot issuance or counting in the 2026 midterms.
• Federal executive authority (e.g., Department of Justice, Election Assistance Commission) issues and successfully enforces regulations prohibiting mail-in ballot issuance or counting in the 2026 midterms, without being overturned by higher courts before election day.

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official legal enactments or rulings accessible via Congress.gov, the U.S. Supreme Court, or official federal agency publications. If such a ban is in effect by election day 2026, this market resolves to 'Yes'. If no such nationwide prohibition is in place, it resolves to 'No'.

Exclusions: Partial restrictions at the state level, changes in administrative guidance, or non-binding political statements will not qualify. State-level bans alone do not count unless matched by federal action of nationwide scope, or unless all 50 states simultaneously implement state-level bans during the Market period.

Restrictions short of a ban (e.g., identification rules, earlier deadlines, limits on drop boxes, or “excuse-required” systems that still allow return by mail) do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Limited exceptions for military and overseas citizens (UOCAVA voters) do not prevent a “Yes” resolution.

Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): If the PDS is unavailable, ambiguous, or contested, Futuur will resolve based on clear consensus from at least three major independent news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, BBC) reporting that mail-in ballots are banned nationwide for the 2026 midterms. Resolution is based on the substantive reality of whether mail-in ballots are legally banned nationwide, not on minor procedural or technical disputes. Futuur may cancel the market if no fair determination is possible.