Will any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce or start building a dual-use research station by end of 2027?
Market Rules
This market asks whether any state that is a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty will, by December 31, 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, announce or begin construction of a new permanent research station in Antarctica explicitly described as dual-use (i.e., both civilian/scientific and military/strategic). For resolution purposes, “new” means the station is not an expansion, refurbishment, or reactivation of an existing station but a distinct new facility.
Primary Designated Source (PDS): official government announcements, defense ministry or foreign ministry press releases, or Antarctic Treaty Secretariat notifications explicitly describing a newly announced or initiated permanent research station in Antarctica as “dual-use.” If such an announcement or construction start occurs during the Market Period, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
Clarifications:
- Seasonal or temporary bases do not count.
- Upgrades to existing stations do not count.
- The “dual-use” character must be explicitly stated in official communications; external speculation is insufficient.
Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): Futuur may rely on reliable news organizations, chosen at its discretion, confirming that an Antarctic Treaty signatory has announced or begun building a new dual-use permanent research station in Antarctica. Resolution will be based on the substantive outcome and intent, not on minor technicalities. If no clear determination is possible by the Market Deadline, the market may be cancelled.