Will María Corina Machado be granted asylum outside Venezuela in 2026? Yes: real money 25%, play money 22% No: real money 75%, play money 78% Volume: real money 199.98, play money 21750.0084 Bettors: real money 0, play money 1 Categories: Politics, Latin America, Venezuela Related markets Bernardo Arévalo to finish his presidential term in Guatemala? (ID: 179586) Volume: real 225.88997734, play 11444.01428295 Bettors: real 5, play 13 Leading (real money): Bernardo Arévalo to finish his presidential term in Guatemala? 79% Leading (play money): Bernardo Arévalo to finish his presidential term in Guatemala? 75% Delcy Rodríguez out as president of Venezuela by ...? (ID: 232587) Volume: real 496.06187265, play 48305.9752 Bettors: real 9, play 6 Leading (real money): December 31 30% Leading (play money): December 31 30%

Will María Corina Machado be granted asylum outside Venezuela in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether María Corina Machado will be formally granted asylum by a country outside Venezuela at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, asylum means formal recognition of refugee or asylum status under international or domestic asylum law. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements or documentation from the granting country or relevant international authorities confirming asylum status.

If María Corina Machado is formally granted asylum by a country outside Venezuela during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Temporary refugee protections, humanitarian visas, or informal arrangements will not count. If official documentation is unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations or statements from Machado or her representatives. Resolution will reflect the substantive grant of asylum, not temporary protective measures. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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