Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026?

This event predicts whether the United States and Iran will sign a nuclear control agreement at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a deal means a formally signed agreement by authorized representatives of both governments. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements or texts released by the U.S. or Iranian governments confirming the signing.

If a nuclear control agreement is formally signed by both the United States and Iran during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Frameworks, memoranda of understanding, or informal understandings without a signed agreement will not count. If official texts are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive signing of an agreement, not negotiations or statements of intent. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.