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Will Bolsonaro be granted house arrest by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 89%, play money 83% No: real money 11%, play money 17% Volume: real money 908.9667425, play money 63057.9939 Bettors: real money 10, play money 28 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 965.16141894, play 506232.79690227 Bettors: real 43, play 1221 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 49% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6764.14444757, play 1070161.69100222 Bettors: real 102, play 1878 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 96% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 96% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 1968.12791744, play 284702.83617077 Bettors: real 43, play 552 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 9%

Will Bolsonaro be granted house arrest by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether Jair Messias Bolsonaro will be legally allowed to serve a criminal sentence under house arrest by December 31, 2026. For this market, house arrest means a judicial order allowing the sentence to be served at home instead of in a prison facility. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official judicial decisions issued by Brazilian courts.

If a competent Brazilian court issues a judicial order by December 31, 2026 allowing Jair Bolsonaro to serve a sentence under house arrest, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Convictions without an accompanying house-arrest order will not count. If judicial decisions are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Brazilian news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive grant of house arrest, not sentencing discussions. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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