Will the US strike Cuba by ...?
Market Rules
This event concerns whether the United States conducts a military strike against the territory of Cuba on or before the date specified in the title (the “Event Period”). For the purposes of this event, a qualifying “strike” means the use of aerial or missile weapons by United States military forces or U.S. government-authorized operatives that physically impact Cuban territory or airspace. This includes drone strikes, missile strikes (including FPV, cruise, or ballistic missiles), and airborne munition delivery that results in a physical strike on Cuban soil or airspace.
For this event, the following do not qualify as strikes:
- Interceptions by surface-to-air defenses that prevent a weapon from reaching Cuban territory, even if debris lands on land;
- Artillery fire, small arms fire, naval gunfire, ground troop incursions, or naval shelling without ordnance delivered from U.S. aerial/missile assets;
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, advisory missions, intelligence operations, law enforcement activities, or joint actions not officially described as a U.S. military strike;
- Border confrontations or other incidents that do not involve an officially declared military strike involving U.S. military forces or U.S. government-authorized weapon deployment.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the official public announcement or record of a qualifying strike by the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House (including the President or official spokespersons), or other relevant U.S. government authority confirming that such a strike occurred. This event’s markets will resolve to “Yes” if a qualifying strike on Cuba is confirmed by the PDS on or before the date specified. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the PDS by that date, this markets will resolve to “No”.
If the PDS is delayed, ambiguous, or contradictory, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus from credible major news organizations reporting a U.S. military strike that meets the criteria above and citing official sources. Resolution will be based on substantive military action, not reporting technicalities. If no fair determination can be made with reasonable confidence using the PDS or SCM by the resolution deadline, Futuur may cancel the event with a public explanation.