Will Brazil's federal government meet its primary fiscal surplus target in 2026?
Market Rules
This market refers exclusively to the primary result — that is, government revenues minus expenditures before the payment of interest on public debt. It does not refer to the nominal fiscal result, which includes interest payments.
The official target defined in Brazil’s 2026 Annual Budget Law (LOA 2026) is a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP (approximately R$34.5 billion), with a tolerance band of ±0.25 percentage points of GDP. Therefore, for this market, the target will be considered met if the primary result is ≥ 0.00% of GDP (i.e., if it is above the lower bound of the tolerance band). If Brazil’s central government achieves a positive primary surplus (greater than 0.00% of GDP) for the 2026 calendar year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Resolution will be based on the official consolidated primary result of the Central Government, as initially published by the National Treasury in its annual fiscal report. Subsequent revisions will not affect the resolution. If the Treasury changes its methodology or publication schedule, Futuur will use the closest equivalent official release. Resolution follows the spirit of the market: to determine whether the federal government's primary fiscal result for 2026 falls within the target defined by the fiscal framework.