Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
Market Rules
This set of markets predicts whether Israel and Hamas will reach an official agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire. On October 8, 2025, an initial ceasefire agreement ("Phase 1") was announced, comprising a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a "yellow line", prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an agreement reached before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines). A market resolves "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire — a publicly announced mutual agreement — is reached between Israel and Hamas on or before the market's deadline.
A "second phase" ceasefire agreement is a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments toward a comprehensive or "full" ceasefire. Any agreement publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of "Phase 2" of the ceasefire qualifies, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the "yellow line" or commitments by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone does not qualify. Resolution is announcement-based: if the agreement is officially reached before the deadline, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of if or when the agreement goes into effect, and that resolution is final and irrevocable.
The Primary Designated Sources are official announcements from the Government of Israel and from Hamas. A wide consensus of credible media reporting also qualifies.