Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Market Rules
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip. Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines). A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline. For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement are not considered. Once a qualifying announcement is made, the resolution is final and irrevocable, even if the commitment is later abandoned.
The Primary Designated Sources are official statements from Hamas leadership. A wide consensus of credible reporting by news outlets confirming that a policy of disarmament has been instituted also qualifies.