Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
Market Rules
This set of markets predicts whether the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, in effect since October 2025, will be cancelled. Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes". A market resolves to "Yes" if either Israel or Hamas announces the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a wide consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, on or before the market's deadline.
Announcements or reports that one side violated the ceasefire are not sufficient on their own; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or a wide consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, qualifies. Once the condition is first met, the resolution is final and irrevocable, even if a ceasefire is subsequently restored.
The Primary Designated Sources are official information from the Government of Israel and from Hamas. A consensus of reporting by credible news outlets may also be used.