Iran full airspace closure by...?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Iran will initiate a general closure of its airspace by the dates covered by the event's markets. A market will resolve to 'Yes' if Iranian authorities order a closure applying to all commercial flights across the Tehran Flight Information Region (FIR), or Iran as a whole, at any point on or before the market's deadline. Limited exceptions (such as individually pre-approved flights) do not prevent a closure from qualifying. Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No'.
Partial or regional closures (for example, restrictions limited to western Iran or to a specific corridor) do not qualify, nor do suspensions of visual-flight-rules traffic only. Closures caused by weather or natural events (earthquakes, volcanic activity), or restrictions imposed by airlines or non-Iranian authorities, are excluded: the closure must be initiated by Iranian authorities for non-meteorological reasons. Once a qualifying closure occurs, the market resolves 'Yes' immediately and irrevocably, even if the airspace later reopens. Resolution reflects whether a genuine general closure occurs, not technicalities of wording in individual notices.
The Primary Designated Source is official publications of Iran's civil aviation authorities — the Civil Aviation Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran (cao.ir) and associated aeronautical notices (NOTAMs) for the Tehran FIR. If official notices are unclear, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible news organizations will be used.