Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed by...?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed to shipping by the dates covered by the event's markets. A market will resolve to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as published by IMF PortWatch, is equal to or less than 10 at any point on or before the market's deadline. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.
A market resolves 'Yes' immediately and irrevocably once qualifying data is published, even if traffic later recovers. Data revisions published before the market's deadline are considered; revisions published after it are disregarded. If no qualifying data has been published within 14 calendar days after the deadline, resolution will use the data available through that point. Resolution follows the transit counts IMF PortWatch actually reports, not superficial changes in how they are presented.
The Primary Designated Source is IMF PortWatch, specifically its "Arrivals of Ships" transit-call data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The organization and data series are paramount; the specific page location may change.