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US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September 2.7% or less: real money 12%, play money 19% 2.80%: real money 3%, play money 5% 2.90%: real money 3%, play money 5% 3.00%: real money 55%, play money 28% 3.10%: real money 21%, play money 34% 3.20%: real money 4%, play money 6% 3.3% or more: real money 2%, play money 3% Volume: real money 69.53167842, play money 0 Bettors: real money 2, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Inflation Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 1755.66850182, play 31302.33685035 Bettors: real 24, play 88 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 41% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 43% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1587.14367219, play 150094.17782247 Bettors: real 88, play 106 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1116.84292351, play 49473.81513658 Bettors: real 18, play 53 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 9% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 16% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2715.2344096, play 116947.89325969 Bettors: real 39, play 214 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3246.73501219, play 138639.04709376 Bettors: real 30, play 211 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 2% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 46%

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September

Market Rules

Markets in this event resolve according to the seasonally adjusted 12-month percentage change in core PCE (the PCE price index excluding food and energy) for the period ending September 2026, as published to one decimal place in the BEA Personal Income and Outlays release scheduled for October 29, 2026. The market whose range contains the reported figure will resolve to "Yes"; exactly one outcome wins.

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