Will there be a hot war between the US and China in 2020?
Market Rules
The relationship between the US and China is strained in some fields, such as diplomacy, trade, media, and ideology. These and other areas can be coordinated in asymmetrical “cold war” strategies between countries. Yet, there still aren’t records of a “hot war” - i.e. a war with active military hostilities - between the US and China.
In by the end of 2024 either the United States or China declares a state of war againt each other, or exchange armed hostilities at least once, this question will be resolved as “Yes”.
Only kinetic military action will be considered as "armed hostility" to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside another country's territory. The deployment of airships and warships to foreign territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.
Comments
- Futuur: Unfortunately, there was indeed a mistake in the title of this market in English. It incorrectly mentioned 2020, when the market details show the goal was to make a forecast about the end of 2024. Because of that mistake, this market had to be canceled, but it is now reopened at a new URL, where forecasters can place their bets again: https://futuur.com/q/145279/will-there-be-a-hot-war-between-the-us-and-china-by-end-2024
- uniquefreak37: Why does the title say 2020 but the bet doesnt resolve until 2024?