Will volunteers be deliberately exposed to SARS-CoV-2 to speed up vaccine development by the end of August?
Market Rules
A group of volunteers have created the international initiative called "1 Day Sooner" - a hub for people to volunteer and to advocate for safe and rapid vaccine development. They are creating a database of people from all over the world willing to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 to help speed up the vaccine development if a Human Challenge Trial - when volunteers are infected with the infective agent on purpose in order to speed up a vaccine's development - is to occur.
By May 5th, 2020, there were yet no indications that a Human challenge trial (HCT) would occur. However, at least 6 vaccines are already being tested in humans, and vaccine makers may or may not decide that an HCT would be an appropriate way to study the efficacy of their vaccine candidate.
If by August 31st, 2020 at least one vaccine maker decides to deliberately infect volunteers with SARS-CoV-2 to test the efficacy of their vaccine, this question will be resolved as "Yes". Futuur will reserve itself the right to choose the sources whose data it deems credible, including news and scientific studies, to resolve this question.