Will Moderna's vaccine be declared safe and effective against Covid-19 in 2020?
Market Rules
By early July, 2020, more than 140 vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2 were currently being developed. The majority of then were still in the preclinical phase of trials, but at least four had either already entered or were about to enter phase III of human trials. Phase III is when the vaccine needs to prove that it is capable of protecting the target population from getting the infection.
The vaccine being developed by Moderna, a US company, is a genetic vaccine, made mainly of viral mRNA, a molecule that will tell our cells to start producing the virus protein that triggers an immune response. The vaccine is supposed to enter Phase III in July. If approved, Moderna's vaccine will be the first-ever mRNA vaccine to enter the market.
If the results from phase III of the Moderna vaccine trials are released by December 31, 2020, and the international scientific community considers that they prove that the Moderna vaccine is indeed safe and effective against COVID-19, this market will be resolved as "Yes". Alternatively, this market may also be resolved as "Yes" if the vaccine is approved by at least one of the following agencies before that: ANVISA (Brazil), FDA (USA or EMA (European Union).
This market will be resolved based on news (with verifiable sources) and scientific studies on the subject from sources or publications that Futuur finds credible and reputable, such as, but not restricted to, World Health Organization, Nature Magazine, Science and other specialized scientific journals.