Will it be confirmed in 2021 that some version of SARS-COV-2 was already in circulation around the world before November 2019?
Market Rules
Scientists at the University of Barcelona (Spain) found traces of coronavirus in sewage samples collected nine months before the first case was confirmed in China. There is still no confirmation, however, as to whether the virus that was found in the samples is actually SARS-COV-2. It is possible, for example, that the high genetic similarity of the coronavirus with other respiratory viruses could lead to misunderstandings of this nature, if that's the case.
If it is confirmed that the samples did contain SARS-COV-2, that would certainly raise questions about what we currently know about the virus, especially concerning why the outbreak didn't happen sooner. Nonetheless, further studies will still be needed before jumping to conclusions about the potential origin of the pandemic.
If by December 31, 2021, it is confirmed that some version of SARS-COV-2 was already in circulation somewhere other than China before November 2019, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.