Will Afghanistan’s opium production drop in 2021?
Market Rules
After taking control of Afghanistan once again, in August 2021, the Taliban declared they will ban opium poppy cultivation and trade. On one hand, the news does not come as a surprise, taking into account that the Taliban regime that started in 1996 also significantly reduced opium poppy cultivation in the country. On the other hand, many of the Taliban funding activities in the last 20 years were linked precisely to the cultivation, logistics, and processing of opium poppy, in addition to the imposition of fees on its transit.
Between 2015 and 2020, Afghanistan was responsible for 83% of the world's opium supply. According to the 2020 Afghanistan opium cultivation and production survey by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the potential production of opium in Afghanistan was estimated at 6,300 tons a year.
If the potential production of opium in Afghanistan for the year 2021, as reported by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime is inferior to 6,300 tons a year, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
Alternatively, in case the information on the potential production of opium is not made available, this market will be resolved as “Yes” if the area under opium poppy cultivation in 2021 is inferior from 224,000 hectares.
If none of these two data points is available, or if despite being available they are inconclusive, this market will be canceled and all the active wagers will return to their respective forecasters.