How many parties will hold seats in Brazil's Senate, combining the senators who get elected in 2022 and those who have mandates through 2026?
Market Rules
Recent electoral changes, especially since 2015, have encouraged concentration in the fragmented Brazilian party system. Some of these measures are the so-called "performance clause" to access part of the public funding for elections, and the end of party coalitions in proportional elections. As a result, many expect the number of parties with elected legislators in Brazil's Congress to be affected in the 2022 elections
This market will resolve in favor of the alternative whose range of values contains the exact number of political parties that either get at least 1 of their candidates elected for Brazil's Federal Senate as a result of the 2022 Brazilian general elections or already hold at least 1 Senate seat that is not under dispute in the 2022 elections (i.e. a seat whose term lasts through 2026).
For the sake of resolving this market, Futuur will only take into account the list of elected candidates right after the election, disregarding eventual renunciations, substitutions, or party merges that take place between the election day (October 2nd, 2022) and the swearing-in ceremony (set to take place at the beginning of 2023 to kick off the next legislative session).