Will the US nonfarm payroll employment in November grow more than in October?
Market Rules
US nonfarm payroll employment numbers are released every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the Employment Situation Release. Many consider this to be the most important data point of the entire report. New reports are traditionally released on every first Friday of each month - based on data that covers the period up to the middle of the previous month - and may include revisions of the data from the previous months.
In its most recent report, the Bureau announced that total nonfarm payroll employment had risen by 261,000 in October.
If the next Employment Situation Release indicates that nonfarm payroll employment in the US grew more in November than it had done in October, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Source: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm.
Comments
- deagol: FutuurBot The correct answer to the title question “will jobs grow more in November than in October” is ‘No’ (263k in Nov vs. 284k in Oct revision). Same question is also in bold text in the description for the criteria to resolve the market. However, I see this was resolved by sticking to the initial report of 261k for October mentioned in the description, despite its revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and despite the description even clarifying that monthly reports “may include revisions of the data from the previous months.” I can’t see why a notice about potential revisions was included in the market description if such revisions would not be taken into account, in contradiction to the title and the resolution criteria in bold text . The title should align with the description to avoid any ambiguity or confusion. cc @Futuur @lucaslocher7 @tom
- Futuur: Hello, deagol . Future revisions of previously released indicators do not affect the resolution of our markets. That is why we explicitly mention the figure from the previous month, so that forecasters can safely make a prediction based on known number. If instead we had made the rules as you suggested, the market would become a double prediction, as one would have not only to predict the nonfarm payroll employment for November, but also whether or not (and in which direction and magnitude) the BLS would revise their data from October. When we explicitly mention the figures from the previous month, we do so to provide reference and secutiry for forecasters to focus on what matters: predicting the perfomance of the indicator on the following month and being able to bet on the direction in comparison to what is currently known by the general publc. 🙂
- deagol: Futuur Thanks. I think it would be clearer if the title as well as the bolded text emphasizing the resolution criteria included the figure, and where you mention there might be revisions, that these will not be taken into account for the resolution.
- Futuur: Thank you for the feedback, deagol . We will try to take that into account (at least the part that has to do with bolding the figure as well) in our next markets. More clarity is always welcomed 🙂