MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term Between 140 and 180: real money 41%, play money 15% More than 180: real money 30%, play money 41% More than 100, less than 140: real money 11%, play money 4% Between 60 and 100: real money 5%, play money 4% Less than 60: real money 3%, play money 35% Volume: real money 155.72163681, play money 19156.73 Bettors: real money 15, play money 76 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Scandals Related markets Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? (ID: 231548) Volume: real 208.33695701, play 22299.9911 Bettors: real 3, play 3 Leading (real money): Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? 20% Leading (play money): Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? 19% Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? (ID: 231687) Volume: real 237.04638084, play 24710.0125 Bettors: real 6, play 9 Leading (real money): Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? 30% Leading (play money): Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? 27% Which of Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through the end of 2026? (ID: 231750) Volume: real 99.99, play 10600.0082 Bettors: real 0, play 3 Leading (real money): Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92% Leading (play money): Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92% PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? (ID: 203256) Volume: real 163.6807789, play 49300.00921686 Bettors: real 4, play 13 Leading (real money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 7% Leading (play money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 12%

MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term

Market Rules

The number of land land occupation innitiatives championed by the Landless Workers Movement (MST) in Brazil, which had been gradually decreasing since 2002, grew sensibly since the beginning of Lula’s administration in 2023, to the point that such growth was used as justification for the creation of a parliamentary investigation on the movement.

This market will resolve in favor of the outcome whose range of values contains the correct number of land occupations promoted by MST while Lula da Silva is the sitting president (first term), according to data from the Colonization and Land Reform National Institute (Incra) and other eventually relevant sources of information.

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