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Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? Yes: real money 30%, play money 27% No: real money 70%, play money 73% Volume: real money 237.04638084, play money 24710.0125 Bettors: real money 6, play money 9 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Scandals Related markets Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? (ID: 231548) Volume: real 208.33695701, play 22299.9911 Bettors: real 3, play 3 Leading (real money): Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? 20% Leading (play money): Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? 19% Which of Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through the end of 2026? (ID: 231750) Volume: real 99.99, play 10600.0082 Bettors: real 0, play 3 Leading (real money): Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92% Leading (play money): Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92% MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term (ID: 176644) Volume: real 155.72163681, play 19156.73 Bettors: real 15, play 76 Leading (real money): Between 140 and 180 41% Leading (play money): More than 180 41% PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? (ID: 203256) Volume: real 163.6807789, play 49300.00921686 Bettors: real 4, play 13 Leading (real money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 7% Leading (play money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 12%

Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether any minister serving in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration will be arrested at any time during calendar year 2026. For this market, arrest means being formally detained by law enforcement authorities, regardless of whether the individual is still in office at the time of arrest. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements by Brazilian judicial or law enforcement authorities.

If any minister from Lula’s administration is formally arrested during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Investigations, indictments, or questioning without detention will not count. If official records are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Brazilian news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive act of arrest, not allegations. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

Comments

  • pedro_brito: My reading is that “Lula’s administration” here means the current administration/mandate (2023–2026) . Therefore, the market should resolve Yes only if a minister from this term is formally arrested during 2026.

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