Independent replication of room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99 by the end of 2024?

On July 22, 2023, a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv. In it, the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. A companion pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99 was also published on arXiv. If confirmed, these findings could represent a major breakthrough not only in superconductor research but also in the world of Physics as a whole, with massive potential for applications in real life. The findings still need to be replicated by other independent scientists if they are to be believed by the scientific community.

This prediction market aims at predicting the likelihood that such a successful replication is achieved by the end of 2024 and will resolve to "Yes" if it is. The criteria for considering that an independent, successful, and reputable replication was achieved are the following:

1. - Confirmation that the temperature at or below which the LK-99 is superconductive (the so-called Critical Temperature) is equal to or greater than 400 K (127ºC)
2. - Confirmation that under the critical temperature — and at ambient pressure — the electrical resistance of the LK-99 is close to zero (threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm).
3. - Confirmation of the Meissner effect — i.e. that the magnetic field inside the material is close to zero.
4. - The LK-99 must be correctly synthesized in the replication
5. - The researchers involved in the replication attempt must be from an institution that is independent of the authors of the original study.

It is not necessary that the papers describing the replication attempts are peer-reviewed. Pre-prints can be taken into account. It will be up to Futuur to evaluate whether those criteria were satisfyingly met or not. Futuur can take weeks to make that call, in order to confidently evaluate the findings of the papers and make sure they are investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc.

Replication attempts made by any of the scientists involved in the original paper will not be taken into account. If the original paper is withdrawn and the new version of the paper is published before replications are attempted, the new version of the paper will be the reference of what needs to be replicated. If the original paper is withdrawn, but a successful, independent, reputable replication of the findings of the original paper is published before the new version of the paper is published, the replication can still be taken into account.

If, rather than being confidently replicated or not replicated, the results presented in the replication papers are unclear, Futuur may decide to cancel this market and return all active wagers to their respective forecasters.