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Will Donald Trump drop out (or be forced out) of the race for the Republican nomination before the Iowa Caucus in 2024? No: real money 93%, play money 96% Yes: real money 7%, play money 4% Volume: real money 446.99734971, play money 32733.46 Bettors: real money 19, play money 34 Categories: Politics, USA, 2024 Elections Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2052.04351725, play 31302.33685035 Bettors: real 26, play 88 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 42% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 43% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1693.81254225, play 150094.17782247 Bettors: real 89, play 106 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1126.05809971, play 56895.46064288 Bettors: real 19, play 55 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 11% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 9% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2715.2344096, play 116947.89325969 Bettors: real 39, play 214 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3258.0711089, play 138639.04709376 Bettors: real 31, play 211 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 40% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 46%

Will Donald Trump drop out (or be forced out) of the race for the Republican nomination before the Iowa Caucus in 2024?

Market Rules

If at any point before January 15, 2024 — when the first Republican Primary (the Iowa Caucus) is expected to take place — Donald J. Trump officially and publicly announces he is withdrawing from the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in the 2024 Elections, this market will resolve to "Yes".

If Donald Trump is forced to leave the race for any reason — be it due to legal problems, being disqualified from the Republican race, or any other issue that objectively (beyond a reasonable doubt) prevents him from receiving the Republican presidential nomination — this market will resolve to "Yes" even in the absence of a statement coming from Trump himself.

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