Will Israel occupy any new previously unoccupied territory by the end of 2023?
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In October 2023, following a series of surprise terrorist attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on Hamas. Taking into account that in past military conflicts, such as the Six-Day War, Israel's response to attacks resulted in the annexation of new territories that had not previously been under its control, some analysts think there is a chance that new annexations might occur as a result of the current conflict.
If by December 31, 2023, Israel uses military means to annex and occupy any portion of territory that it did not control on October 7, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes". For the sake of resolving this market, Palestinian territories occupied but not annexed by Israel will not be considered annexed territories.
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- sparkman_dan: Does Gaza count? I had been under Israeli control. From 1967 until some time in the 90s 2000s. Or is this a question about new Arab territory?
- Futuur: Hello, sparkman_dan As a prediction market, our platform only refers to predictions of future events . Therefore, Gaza's occupation in the past does not count to resolve the market. We have adjusted the text to make it clearer that we are talking only about the occupation and annexation of territories that are taken after the events that initiated the current war. At the time of this comment, for example, Israel has taken military action within Gaza's territory and is temporarily occupying parts of it, but it has not officially annexed any of its territory. At least as of right now, the actions in Gaza are all presented as temporary, hence the condition to resolve this market has not yet been met in Gaza or anywhere else.