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Will Israel launch a military kinetic attack on Iran in 2024?

Market Rules

If by December 31, 2024, Israel deploys military strength to combat or damage a strategic structure in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, and the deployment of troops and land armored vehicles inside Iranian territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Iranian territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

If focused attacks that appear to be the result of covert intelligence action take place, the episode(s) will be evaluated case by case by Futuur's staff using credible media and scholarly sources as references to come to a resolution.

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