Trump to serve his full term?
Market Rules
If the winning candidate of the 2024 presidential election in the United States of America serves the full regular 4-year term in office, this market will resolve to "Yes". The regular term of this president ranges from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029.
Temporary leaves for health purposes or official appointments will not qualify as term interruptions. Only the definitive interruption of the term will be considered sufficient as a criterion to resolve this market to “No”.
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Comments
- sparkman_dan: How does this resolve if he dies in office. In the past you have said markets like this were canceled in the event of death.
- Futuur: Thank you for your question, @sparkman_dan. As we explained in the past, Futuur cannot provide incentives for people to profit from causing harm to others. Therefore, if an assassination attempt was connected in any way to the possibility of earning profits from this prediction market, the market would be immediately canceled. In the case of death by natural causes, however, we presume the event triggering the market resolution was entirely independent of the market dynamic. The resolution in that case, in principle, would be held.