Arrest order of Carla Zambelli in 2025?

Brazil's Federal Representative Carla Zambelli (PL) is under investigation by the Brazilian Federal Police in the scope of the 3FA operation, for taking part in the invasion of the systems of the National Justice Council (CNJ) and insertion of false data in the National Database of Arrest Warrants. Zambelli was subject to a seizure in August 2023 and summoned to testify to the police. She may also become a defendant for illegal possession of handguns and illegal compelling by force of fun during the election campaign of 2022.

If by December 31, 2025, any court in Brazil orders the imprisoning of congresswoman Carla Zambelli — even if as provisional or preventive arrest only — this market will resolve to “Yes”. The market will resolve to “Yes” even if Zambelli is not effectively taken to jail, be it because she was granted habeas corpus or for any other reason.