US to control the Panama Canal in 2025?

This market aims to predict whether, at any point during 2025, the United States will assume operational control or effective sovereign authority over the Panama Canal. "Control" is defined as the United States being the primary entity responsible for managing, operating, or overseeing the Panama Canal, either through direct sovereign authority or binding agreements that grant exclusive operational authority. This does not require a change in ownership or sovereignty of the Canal Zone to the United States.

Verification will rely on official announcements or agreements involving the U.S. government, the Panamanian government, or any relevant international entities. Sources may include reports from reputable media outlets. If no such control is assumed or announced by the United States during 2025, the market will resolve as "No."

Temporary agreements, such as joint operations, shared management, or temporary military deployments that do not grant the United States primary authority or operational control of the Canal, will not satisfy the market’s criteria. Additionally, the purchase or lease of facilities near the Panama Canal without assuming control of the Canal itself will not qualify. In cases of ambiguity or conflicting reports, priority will be given to official government and internationally recognized sources.