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Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? Yes: real money 40%, play money 32% No: real money 60%, play money 68% Volume: real money 405.17711452, play money 23400.39 Bettors: real money 7, play money 33 Categories: Politics, USA, White House Related markets Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2715.2344096, play 116466.23915531 Bettors: real 39, play 212 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3246.73501219, play 138456.22057252 Bettors: real 30, play 210 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 2% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 47%

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether Donald Trump’s rating (“Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?”) is classified as “Favorable” according to the website 538 on December 20, 2025. The market will resolve as “Yes” if the “Favorable” indicator displayed on the referred date rates at least 0.0.

If 538 stops classifying ratings as “Favorable” or “Unfavorable” or other equivalent categories (such as Approve/Disapprove), this market will resolve as “Yes” if Trump’s favorable rating is greater than his unfavorable rating.

If no values for December 20, 2025, are published by January 3, 2026, Futuur will resolve this market based on the closest values, provided that these are for any day between December 13 and 27, 2025. In that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 19, 2025, is shown on the site but not one for December 21, 2025), the market will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the market will resolve as their average.

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Comments

  • twin: What happens to this market now that 538 is gone?
  • polymad: I guess we will get the money back?
  • Futuur: Thanks for you messages, @twin and @polymad. Indeed, with the closure of 538, we have canceled the markets, returned all active wagers at their original purchase value, and opened a new market covering the same issue according to Real Clear Politics instead of 538. You can find the new market at  https://futuur.com/q/216355/will-donald-trump-have-a-positive-net-favorability-rate-on-december-20-2025-according-to-real-clear-politics  and make your predictions right away.

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