Will Bill 2858/22 (Amnesty Bill) pass in Congress in 2025?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether Bill No. 2,858 of 2022 (the “Amnesty Bill”) will be approved by both legislative houses of Brazil's National Congress before the parliamentary recess at the end of 2025. If that occurs, the market will resolve to “Yes”.
Alternatively, if Senate Bill No. 5,064 of 2023 is approved by both houses of the National Congress, this market will also resolve to “Yes”, even if Bill 2,858/22 is not approved.
For this market, presidential sanction of the approved legislation is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to “Yes”. If at any point before the market’s deadline, it becomes clear that the bill will not be scheduled for consideration, the market may resolve to “No”.
Official communications and records from both houses of the National Congress will be considered to determine this market’s resolution. Credible journalistic reports may be used as secondary sources to resolve this market.