Will the Chinese tariff on US imports be less than 84% by May 1?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether, between April 10 and April 30, 2025, at 23:59 (UTC-3), the People’s Republic of China will reduce the retaliatory tariff rate it imposed on U.S. imports from 84% — the rate publicly confirmed on April 9 — to a level below that threshold. To resolve as “Yes,” the State Council Tariff Commission or Ministry of Commerce must issue an official revision to lower the general tariff burden on U.S. goods to below 84%.
The announcement must come in the form of an official circular, decree, or government bulletin issued by the market deadline. The change must apply broadly to U.S. goods and not be limited to small product categories or informal, unenforced gestures. Temporary suspensions or reductions will qualify if publicly implemented across most affected product lines.
If the general tariff rate remains at or above 84% through April 30, the market will resolve as “No.” Official Chinese government announcements are the primary resolution sources, with corroboration from global economic reporting used only if necessary for confirmation or translation.