Will the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028? Yes: real money 7%, play money 16% No: real money 93%, play money 84% Volume: real money 149.60841012, play money 14174.99899414 Bettors: real money 6, play money 15 Categories: Science, Genetics Related markets Extinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027? (ID: 209130) Volume: real 115.26574629, play 19806.26956868 Bettors: real 10, play 22 Leading (real money): Extinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027? 45% Leading (play money): Extinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027? 14%

Will the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?

Market Rules

This market predicts whether Colossal Biosciences (or another similar company) will successfully create a living, genetically engineered Dodo bird (Raphus cucullatus) or close genetic proxy (such as a pigeon edited with Dodo genes) through de-extinction technologies by December 31, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the following conditions are met:

  • Colossal Biosciences (or a similar company) must publicly announce the successful creation of a living Dodo bird or Dodo-proxy organism through genetic engineering techniques on or before December 31, 2028.
  • The organism must be viable (capable of surviving outside artificial womb/incubation) and possess the key genetic and phenotypic characteristics that identify it as a Dodo or Dodo-proxy.
  • The success must be verified through at least one of the following: 1) Peer-reviewed scientific publication documenting the achievement, 2) Public demonstration or presentation of the living specimen, or 3) Confirmation from multiple credible scientific organizations or experts.

This market will be resolved based on verifiable scientific publications, official announcements from Colossal Biosciences and similar companies, and reporting from major scientific news outlets.

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