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Will Lula be confirmed as a presidential pre-candidate in Brazil by May 1, 2026? Yes: real money 50%, play money 89% No: real money 50%, play money 11% Volume: real money 638.73119004, play money 65552.86014594 Bettors: real money 14, play money 51 Categories: Politics, Brazil, 2026 Election Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1069.69527532, play 444537.5891163 Bettors: real 39, play 1216 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 50% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 25% Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? (ID: 156870) Volume: real 1154.38048418, play 213718.12816903 Bettors: real 25, play 403 Leading (real money): Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? 7% Leading (play money): Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? 100% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 5753.43938187, play 932132.89794923 Bettors: real 94, play 1854 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 50% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 94% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 1755.13293676, play 251150.95481092 Bettors: real 39, play 542 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 51% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 15% Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? (ID: 161038) Volume: real 161.74939202, play 125126.91555822 Bettors: real 16, play 265 Leading (real money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 50% Leading (play money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 6%

Will Lula be confirmed as a presidential pre-candidate in Brazil by May 1, 2026?

Market Rules

This market will resolve as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC-3) on May 1, 2026, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva is formally confirmed by any party as a pre-candidate for the Brazilian presidency in the 2026 elections.

A "pre-candidate" is defined as someone who:

  1. has publicly declared their intention to run for president, regardless of formal registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); and
  2. got his pre-candidature endorsed by a political party.

The announcement must come from a registered political party or an authorized representative. Media speculation or unofficial statements will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

Endorsements coming from other candidates or political activities that do not explicitly confirm Lula's condition as an official pre-candidate will not qualify. If no official confirmation is made by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No." In case of ambiguity or conflicting information, official sources or widely recognized media outlets will take precedence.

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